The Pathfinder Program Effectiveness Question

The Pathfinder programme is one of the Adventist church's largest and most visible youth investments, with 2.75+ million global participants. Despite this scale, systematic evidence on whether Pathfinder participation independently improves long-term church retention remains remarkably limited. The strongest available data comes from the 2019 Chosen International Camporee (CIC) study showing 85% of surveyed Pathfinders intend to remain active Adventists — but this represents stated intention among highly engaged participants, not longitudinal tracking of actual outcomes. This LRP examines the available evidence, identifies critical research gaps, presents competing interpretations of Pathfinder effectiveness, and contextualises the programme within the broader retention evidence base. **Key Finding:** 🟡 Pathfinder participants report high retention intentions (85%), but no longitudinal data confirms these intentions translate to actual adult church engagement. The programme's massive scale makes this evidence gap one of the most consequential in Adventist youth ministry research.