The Long-Term Fruit of Public Evangelism — 1, 3, and 5-Year Retention of Campaign Baptisms

The Adventist Church baptised 1,835,788 new members in 2023, but lost 1,284,999 in the same year — losses equalling 69% of gains. Over 50+ years, 40-49% of all baptised members have left. The "back door problem" is the church's most discussed statistical challenge, yet remarkably, no systematic study tracks retention by evangelistic method. Public evangelism campaigns (the church's traditional primary evangelistic tool) are expensive, resource-intensive events that produce visible baptism numbers. But the critical question — how many campaign baptisms are still active 1, 3, and 5 years later — remains largely unanswered. Available evidence suggests 10% dropout within the first year, rising significantly by year 5. Ministry Magazine research debunks the myth that evangelism converts leave faster than cradle members, but proper integration and discipleship are the determining factors.